Stadion Gradski · Analysis updated 07:05 UTC
Sutjeska vs Jezero Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Sutjeska and 0.80 for Jezero, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Sutjeska the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sutjeska win
67.9% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sutjeska home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jezero away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.1%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.1%
- 3–08.6%
Recent form
Sutjeska
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bokelj · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dečić · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tivat · 2-0 (W)
Jezero
- 2026-10-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrovac · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost DG · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lovćen · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mornar · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · Sutjeska 0-0 Jezero (First League)
- 2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · Sutjeska 1-1 Jezero (First League)
- 2026-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · Sutjeska 1-1 Jezero (First League)
- 2026-02-10T12:00:00.000Z · Sutjeska 0-1 Jezero (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-10-26T13:00:00.000Z · Sutjeska 1-0 Jezero (First League)
- 2025-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · Sutjeska 1-2 Jezero (First League)
- 2025-05-18T15:30:00.000Z · Sutjeska 0-2 Jezero (First League)
- 2025-03-29T14:00:00.000Z · Sutjeska 2-1 Jezero (First League)
- 2024-11-25T13:00:00.000Z · Sutjeska 1-0 Jezero (First League)
- 2024-09-22T15:00:00.000Z · Sutjeska 2-1 Jezero (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Mornar | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Buducnost Podgorica | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Dečić | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Petrovac | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Jezero | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sutjeska win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.