Stadion Kraj Bistrice · Referee Wojciech Myc, Poland · Analysis updated 22:39 UTC
Sutjeska vs Kairat Almaty Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Sutjeska and 2.00 for Kairat Almaty, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Kairat Almaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kairat Almaty win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sutjeska home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kairat Almaty away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kairat Almaty to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Sutjeska and 2.00 for Kairat Almaty, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.0%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.6%
Recent form
Sutjeska
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tivat · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dečić · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost DG · 5-1 (W)
Kairat Almaty
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhenys · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaspiy · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yelimay Semey · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 4 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Sabah FA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kairat Almaty win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.