Stadion Gradski · Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Sutjeska vs Petrovac Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sutjeska and 0.63 for Petrovac, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives Sutjeska the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sutjeska win
59.0% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sutjeska home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sutjeska to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 26% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Sutjeska and 0.63 for Petrovac, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.6%
- 2–013.4%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.5%
Recent form
Sutjeska
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Arsenal Tivat · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dečić · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost DG · 5-1 (W)
Petrovac
- 2026-10-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kom · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost DG · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tivat · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 2 | Sutjeska | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Buducnost Podgorica | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Mornar | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Dečić | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Bokelj | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 8 | Jezero | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 9 | Petrovac | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sutjeska win, at 59.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.