Suwon Sports Complex · Referee D. Seo · Analysis updated 05:41 UTC
Suwon City FC vs Busan I Park Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.34 for Busan I Park, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Suwon City FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Suwon City FC win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Suwon City FC home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Busan I Park away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Suwon City FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Suwon City FC and 1.34 for Busan I Park, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.3%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.53 | 60.9% | 63.6% | 1.57 | +2.7 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.45 | 37.2% | 39.5% | 2.53 | +2.3 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 44.0% | 46.2% | 2.16 | +2.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.8% | 76.3% | 1.31 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 28.9% | 30.1% | 3.32 | +1.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.30 | 40.6% | 41.2% | 2.43 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 70.3% | 69.8% | 1.43 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.57 | 59.4% | 58.8% | 1.70 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.70 | 55.0% | 53.7% | 1.86 | -1.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.45 | 62.8% | 60.5% | 1.65 | -2.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.38 | 39.1% | 36.4% | 2.75 | -2.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.2% | 23.6% | 4.24 | -3.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Suwon City FC
- 2026-08-22T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Gimhae City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Suwon Bluewings · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Paju Citizen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Daegu FC · 2-1 (W)
Busan I Park
- 2026-10-18T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeonnam Dragons · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Paju Citizen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimpo Citizen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimhae City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ansan Greeners · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suwon Bluewings | 28 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 62 |
| 2 | Suwon City FC | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 22 | 54 |
| 3 | Seoul E-Land FC | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 54 |
| 4 | Daegu FC | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 52 |
| 5 | Busan I Park | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Hwaseong | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 45 |
| 7 | Asan Mugunghwa | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 39 |
| 8 | Gimpo Citizen | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 38 |
| 9 | Gyeongnam FC | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | -2 | 35 |
| 10 | Cheongju | 29 | 6 | 14 | 9 | -12 | 32 |
| 11 | Seongnam FC | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | Paju Citizen | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | -7 | 31 |
| 13 | Yongin City | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Cheonan City | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Ansan Greeners | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | -23 | 25 |
| 16 | Jeonnam Dragons | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -17 | 24 |
| 17 | Gimhae City | 28 | 3 | 8 | 17 | -33 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Suwon City FC win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.