SV Babelsberg 03 vs BSG Chemie Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for SV Babelsberg 03 and 1.25 for BSG Chemie Leipzig, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives SV Babelsberg 03 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SV Babelsberg 03 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BSG Chemie Leipzig away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SV Babelsberg 03 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for SV Babelsberg 03 and 1.25 for BSG Chemie Leipzig, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SV Babelsberg 03 win39%

Draw26%

BSG Chemie Leipzig win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–010.1%
0–19.3%
2–18.5%
1–27.8%

Recent form

SV Babelsberg 03

2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemnitzer FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 0-1 (L)

BSG Chemie Leipzig

2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC II · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemnitzer FC · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	9	4	1	24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	9	3	2	21	30
3	Hallescher FC	14	8	5	1	11	29
4	Altglienicke	14	8	3	3	9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	8	2	4	11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	7	5	2	9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	7	3	4	5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	6	4	4	5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	6	1	7	-1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	5	4	5	-5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	14	4	6	4	0	18
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	4	4	6	-8	16
13	BSG Chemie Leipzig	14	3	4	7	-5	13
14	BFC Preussen	14	2	5	7	-6	11
15	Tasmania Berlin	14	3	2	9	-18	11
16	Hertha BSC II	14	2	4	8	-15	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	2	3	9	-17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	2	0	12	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.