· Analysis updated 00:00 UTC
SV Babelsberg 03 vs Hertha BSC II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for SV Babelsberg 03 and 1.10 for Hertha BSC II, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives SV Babelsberg 03 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SV Babelsberg 03 win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SV Babelsberg 03 home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hertha BSC II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–18.0%
Recent form
SV Babelsberg 03
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemnitzer FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hallescher FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 0-1 (L)
Hertha BSC II
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs RSV Eintracht · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Preussen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Zwickau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · SV Babelsberg 03 3-1 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2026-01-23T13:00:00.000Z · SV Babelsberg 03 0-4 Hertha BSC II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-30T13:00:00.000Z · SV Babelsberg 03 2-0 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2025-04-19T11:00:00.000Z · SV Babelsberg 03 1-2 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2024-10-25T17:00:00.000Z · SV Babelsberg 03 4-0 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2024-03-15T18:00:00.000Z · SV Babelsberg 03 1-2 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2024-01-10T14:00:00.000Z · SV Babelsberg 03 7-1 Hertha BSC II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-09-29T17:00:00.000Z · SV Babelsberg 03 2-1 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2023-02-04T12:00:00.000Z · SV Babelsberg 03 1-0 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
- 2022-08-12T17:00:00.000Z · SV Babelsberg 03 1-0 Hertha BSC II (Regionalliga - Nordost)
Regionalliga - Nordost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 31 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | Altglienicke | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 26 |
| 6 | BFC Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 7 | Erzgebirge Aue | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 24 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | Magdeburg II | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | FSV Zwickau | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 16 |
| 13 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | BFC Preussen | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | Tasmania Berlin | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
| 16 | Hertha BSC II | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
| 17 | RSV Eintracht | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 9 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 14 | 2 | 0 | 12 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SV Babelsberg 03 win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.