· Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Portsmouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.18 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 3.78. That distribution gives SV Darmstadt 98 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SV Darmstadt 98 win
67.9% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SV Darmstadt 98 home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Portsmouth away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.60 goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.18 for Portsmouth, a combined 3.78 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–17.0%
- 3–06.7%
Recent form
SV Darmstadt 98
- 2026-09-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 0-1 (L)
Portsmouth
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Millwall · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · SV Darmstadt 98 0-0 Portsmouth (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SV Darmstadt 98 win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.