· Analysis updated 06:40 UTC
SV Drochtersen/Assel vs Victoria Hamburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for SV Drochtersen/Assel and 1.45 for Victoria Hamburg, a combined total of 3.77. That distribution gives SV Drochtersen/Assel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SV Drochtersen/Assel win
57.1% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SV Drochtersen/Assel home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Victoria Hamburg away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SV Drochtersen/Assel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for SV Drochtersen/Assel and 1.45 for Victoria Hamburg, a combined 3.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–06.2%
Recent form
SV Drochtersen/Assel
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Schöningen · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Pauli II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Emden · 8-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlas Delmenhorst · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Eimsbütteler TV · 7-1 (W)
Victoria Hamburg
- 2026-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Concordia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Teutonia Ottensen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tus Dassendorf · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Sasel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Süderelbe · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · SV Drochtersen/Assel 4-0 Victoria Hamburg (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SV Drochtersen/Assel win, at 57.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.