Waldstadion Kaiserlinde · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.40 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives FC Augsburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SV Elversberg home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
FC Augsburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Augsburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for SV Elversberg and 1.40 for FC Augsburg, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.70 (model 46.2% vs market 34.8%, edge +11.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.70 | 34.8% | 46.2% | 2.16 | +11.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 73.3% | 74.0% | 1.35 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.60 | 59.1% | 59.5% | 1.68 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.75 | 33.2% | 33.5% | 2.99 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 26.1% | 26.0% | 3.85 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.25 | 40.6% | 40.5% | 2.47 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.6% | 66.5% | 1.50 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 65.2% | 53.8% | 1.86 | -11.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
SV Elversberg
- 2026-09-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schalke 04 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-2 (W)
FC Augsburg
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.