· Analysis updated 06:17 UTC
SV Horn vs SKN ST. Polten Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for SV Horn and 2.85 for SKN ST. Polten, a combined total of 5.43. That distribution gives SKN ST. Polten the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
SKN ST. Polten win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 2.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SV Horn home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SKN ST. Polten away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SKN ST. Polten to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 37% / 18% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for SV Horn and 2.85 for SKN ST. Polten, a combined 5.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–25.9%
- 2–35.6%
- 3–25.1%
- 3–34.8%
- 1–24.6%
Recent form
SV Horn
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Krems / Rehberg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Donau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Leobendorf · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Wienerberg · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fach-Donaufeld · 1-2 (L)
SKN ST. Polten
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs First Vienna · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Liefering · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Red Bull Salzburg · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Salzburg · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SKN ST. Polten win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 87% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.