Alpenstadion · Referee A. Untergasser · Analysis updated 13:29 UTC
SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (Am) Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for SV Kapfenberg and 1.38 for Austria Vienna (Am), a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Austria Vienna (Am) the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SV Kapfenberg home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Austria Vienna (Am) away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 47.3% vs market 40.3%, edge +7.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.3% | 47.3% | 2.11 | +7.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 58.0% | 59.4% | 1.68 | +1.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.9% | 73.7% | 1.36 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 2.75 | 32.7% | 33.1% | 3.02 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.4% | 26.3% | 3.80 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 40.9% | 40.6% | 2.46 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.36 | 69.1% | 66.9% | 1.49 | -2.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.7% | 52.7% | 1.90 | -7.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
SV Kapfenberg
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna (Am) · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SKU Amstetten · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs WSPG Wels · 0-1 (L)
Austria Vienna (Am)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Kapfenberg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid Wien II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SKU Amstetten · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Liefering · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · SV Kapfenberg 0-1 Austria Vienna (Am) (2. Liga)
- 2026-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · SV Kapfenberg 2-1 Austria Vienna (Am) (2. Liga)
- 2025-11-28T17:00:00.000Z · SV Kapfenberg 1-2 Austria Vienna (Am) (2. Liga)
- 2023-02-25T13:30:00.000Z · SV Kapfenberg 4-2 Austria Vienna (Am) (2. Liga)
- 2022-08-05T16:10:00.000Z · SV Kapfenberg 2-2 Austria Vienna (Am) (2. Liga)
- 2022-05-06T16:30:00.000Z · SV Kapfenberg 5-1 Austria Vienna (Am) (2. Liga)
- 2021-10-30T12:30:00.000Z · SV Kapfenberg 3-1 Austria Vienna (Am) (2. Liga)
- 2021-04-02T16:30:00.000Z · SV Kapfenberg 2-1 Austria Vienna (Am) (2. Liga)
- 2020-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · SV Kapfenberg 0-0 Austria Vienna (Am) (2. Liga)
- 2020-07-31T18:30:00.000Z · SV Kapfenberg 0-3 Austria Vienna (Am) (2. Liga)
2. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC BW Linz | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 2 | First Vienna | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Vienna (Am) | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 4 | Wacker Innsbruck | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Floridsdorfer AC | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Austria Salzburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | SKU Amstetten | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Liefering | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Admira Wacker | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | SKN ST. Polten | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Voitsberg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Sturm Graz II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | WSPG Wels | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Rapid Wien II | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | SV Kapfenberg | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.