SV Kapfenberg vs FC Liefering Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for SV Kapfenberg and 1.95 for FC Liefering, a combined total of 3.84. That distribution gives FC Liefering the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SV Kapfenberg home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Liefering away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Liefering to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 38% / 21% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for SV Kapfenberg and 1.95 for FC Liefering, a combined 3.84 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SV Kapfenberg win38%

Draw21%

FC Liefering win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

1–17.9%
1–27.7%
2–17.5%
2–27.3%
1–35.0%

Recent form

SV Kapfenberg

2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Austria Vienna (Am) · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SKU Amstetten · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Admira Wacker · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs WSPG Wels · 0-1 (L)

FC Liefering

2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Sturm Graz II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs WSG Wattens · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Floridsdorfer AC · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T08:30:00.000Z · H vs SKN ST. Polten · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-28T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Voitsberg · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC BW Linz	10	8	1	1	20	25
2	First Vienna	10	8	1	1	12	25
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	10	6	1	3	4	19
4	Admira Wacker	10	6	0	4	3	18
5	SKU Amstetten	10	4	5	1	4	17
6	Austria Salzburg	10	5	1	4	3	16
7	Wacker Innsbruck	10	4	2	4	1	14
8	FC Liefering	10	4	2	4	-2	14
9	Floridsdorfer AC	10	4	1	5	-2	13
10	Voitsberg	10	3	3	4	0	12
11	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	10	3	3	4	-2	12
12	SKN ST. Polten	10	3	2	5	-2	11
13	Sturm Graz II	10	2	2	6	-8	8
14	WSPG Wels	10	2	2	6	-12	8
15	SV Kapfenberg	10	2	1	7	-7	7
16	Rapid Wien II	10	2	1	7	-12	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.