SV Lafnitz vs Kalsdorf Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for SV Lafnitz and 1.90 for Kalsdorf, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Kalsdorf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Kalsdorf win

52.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 1.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SV Lafnitz home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kalsdorf away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

SV Lafnitz win25%

Draw22%

Kalsdorf win53%

Double chance 1X

48%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–29.7%
0–18.1%
0–27.7%
2–16.4%

Recent form

SV Lafnitz

2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tillmitsch · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartberg (Am) · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiz · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Allerheiligen · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Deutschlandsberger SC · 0-3 (L)

Kalsdorf

2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiz · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gleisdorf 09 · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Allerheiligen · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grazer AK · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tillmitsch · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · SV Lafnitz 2-2 Kalsdorf (Regionalliga - South)
2026-04-17T17:00:00.000Z · SV Lafnitz 0-3 Kalsdorf (Regionalliga - Mitte)
2025-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · SV Lafnitz 1-3 Kalsdorf (Regionalliga - Mitte)
2018-03-16T18:00:00.000Z · SV Lafnitz 1-0 Kalsdorf (Regionalliga - Mitte)
2017-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · SV Lafnitz 1-0 Kalsdorf (Regionalliga - Mitte)
2017-04-28T17:00:00.000Z · SV Lafnitz 0-0 Kalsdorf (Regionalliga - Mitte)
2016-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · SV Lafnitz 0-1 Kalsdorf (Regionalliga - Mitte)
2016-05-27T16:30:00.000Z · SV Lafnitz 2-0 Kalsdorf (Regionalliga - Mitte)
2015-10-23T17:00:00.000Z · SV Lafnitz 0-3 Kalsdorf (Regionalliga - Mitte)
2014-11-11T17:30:00.000Z · SV Lafnitz 3-0 Kalsdorf (Regionalliga - Mitte)

Regionalliga - South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Velden	13	7	5	1	8	26
2	Treibach	13	7	2	4	8	23
3	Austria Klagenfurt	13	7	2	4	4	23
4	Deutschlandsberger SC	12	6	4	2	6	22
5	Völkermarkt	12	6	2	4	11	20
6	Kalsdorf	12	5	4	3	4	19
7	Weiz	12	4	6	2	4	18
8	SV Lafnitz	12	4	6	2	2	18
9	Wolfsberger AC	12	5	3	4	2	18
10	Tillmitsch	12	3	5	4	-1	14
11	Hartberg (Am)	12	3	4	5	-5	13
12	Allerheiligen	12	3	3	6	-1	12
13	Gleisdorf 09	12	3	2	7	-9	11
14	Wolfsberg	13	2	5	6	-17	11
15	Bleiburg	13	2	4	7	-6	10
16	Donau Klagenfurt	13	1	5	7	-10	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Kalsdorf win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.