SV Meppen vs FC Saarbrücken Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for SV Meppen and 1.43 for FC Saarbrücken, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives SV Meppen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SV Meppen win

49.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SV Meppen home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Saarbrücken away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

SV Meppen win49%

Draw22%

FC Saarbrücken win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.6%
2–19.3%
1–26.9%
1–06.8%
2–26.6%

Recent form

SV Meppen

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoffenheim II · 0-1 (L)

FC Saarbrücken

2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Havelse · 2-3 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Nancy · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · SV Meppen 1-6 FC Saarbrücken (3. Liga)
2023-04-23T11:00:00.000Z · SV Meppen 1-0 FC Saarbrucken (3. Liga)
2022-10-29T12:00:00.000Z · SV Meppen 0-0 FC Saarbrucken (3. Liga)
2022-03-06T12:00:00.000Z · SV Meppen 0-1 FC Saarbrucken (3. Liga)
2021-09-25T12:00:00.000Z · SV Meppen 2-2 FC Saarbrucken (3. Liga)
2021-05-14T17:00:00.000Z · SV Meppen 0-2 FC Saarbrucken (3. Liga)
2021-01-09T13:00:00.000Z · SV Meppen 1-0 FC Saarbrucken (3. Liga)

3. Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	11	8	1	2	14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	7	2	2	15	23
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	6	3	2	6	21
4	FC Saarbrücken	11	5	2	4	6	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	5	2	4	0	17
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	5	2	4	-1	17
7	Waldhof Mannheim	11	5	1	5	3	16
8	Hoffenheim II	11	5	1	5	2	16
9	Hansa Rostock	11	4	4	3	-2	16
10	SV Wehen	11	4	3	4	3	15
11	Preußen Münster	11	4	3	4	-2	15
12	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11	4	3	4	-2	15
13	SV Meppen	11	4	2	5	-1	14
14	Stuttgart II	11	4	2	5	-2	14
15	Verl	11	3	3	5	-6	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	3	3	5	-12	12
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	3	2	6	-8	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	2	4	5	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	11	2	4	5	-4	10
20	Havelse	11	2	3	6	-9	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SV Meppen win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.