SV Rodinghausen vs Sportfreunde Siegen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for SV Rodinghausen and 1.08 for Sportfreunde Siegen, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives SV Rodinghausen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

SV Rodinghausen win

52.0% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SV Rodinghausen home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportfreunde Siegen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SV Rodinghausen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for SV Rodinghausen and 1.08 for Sportfreunde Siegen, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SV Rodinghausen win52%

Draw24%

Sportfreunde Siegen win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–111.4%
1–010.6%
2–19.7%
2–09.0%
0–16.7%

Recent form

SV Rodinghausen

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportfreunde Lotte · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Gutersloh · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund II · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiedenbrück · 2-3 (L)

Sportfreunde Siegen

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gutersloh · 5-0 (W)
2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SG Wattenscheid 09 · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · SV Rodinghausen 1-2 Sportfreunde Siegen (Regionalliga - West)
2025-12-06T13:00:00.000Z · SV Rodinghausen 3-4 Sportfreunde Siegen (Regionalliga - West)
2025-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · SV Rodinghausen 0-3 Sportfreunde Siegen (Regionalliga - West)

Regionalliga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	12	10	1	1	21	31
2	Borussia Dortmund II	12	8	4	0	13	28
3	Borussia M'gladbach II	12	7	2	3	13	23
4	FC Gutersloh	12	7	2	3	8	23
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	12	5	4	3	6	19
6	Bonner SC	12	4	6	2	4	18
7	Schalke 04 II	11	6	0	5	4	18
8	Westfalia Rhynern	12	5	2	5	-3	17
9	Bergisch Gladbach	12	5	1	6	-7	16
10	Hilden	12	4	3	5	-6	15
11	Köln II	11	4	2	5	0	14
12	Bochum II	12	4	2	6	-5	14
13	FC Bocholt	12	3	4	5	-4	13
14	Paderborn II	12	3	4	5	-4	13
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	12	3	3	6	-5	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	12	2	3	7	-6	9
17	Wiedenbrück	12	2	2	8	-15	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	12	1	3	8	-14	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is SV Rodinghausen win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.