SV Wehen vs MSV Duisburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for SV Wehen and 2.10 for MSV Duisburg, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives MSV Duisburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

MSV Duisburg win

64.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.93 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SV Wehen home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
MSV Duisburg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates MSV Duisburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 16% / 20% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for SV Wehen and 2.10 for MSV Duisburg, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

SV Wehen win16%

Draw20%

MSV Duisburg win64%

Double chance 1X

36%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

0–210.7%
0–110.2%
1–29.9%
1–19.4%
0–37.5%

Recent form

SV Wehen

2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlsruher SC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Waldhof Mannheim · 0-1 (L)

MSV Duisburg

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Viktoria Köln · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	11	8	1	2	14	25
2	FC Viktoria Köln	11	7	2	2	15	23
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	11	6	3	2	6	21
4	FC Saarbrücken	10	5	2	3	7	17
5	Alemannia Aachen	11	5	2	4	0	17
6	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	5	2	4	-1	17
7	Hoffenheim II	10	5	1	4	5	16
8	Hansa Rostock	11	4	4	3	-2	16
9	SV Wehen	11	4	3	4	3	15
10	Fortuna Düsseldorf	11	4	3	4	-2	15
11	SV Meppen	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Stuttgart II	11	4	2	5	-2	14
13	Waldhof Mannheim	10	4	1	5	0	13
14	Preußen Münster	10	3	3	4	-3	12
15	Verl	11	3	3	5	-6	12
16	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	11	3	3	5	-12	12
17	Würzburger Kickers	11	3	2	6	-8	11
18	SSV Jahn Regensburg	11	2	4	5	0	10
19	Fortuna Köln	10	2	4	4	-3	10
20	Havelse	10	1	3	6	-10	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is MSV Duisburg win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.