BRITA-Arena · Analysis updated 21:33 UTC
SV Wehen vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.17 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives SV Wehen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
SV Wehen win
45.8% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SV Wehen home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SV Wehen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for SV Wehen and 1.17 for SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
SV Wehen
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlsruher SC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Waldhof Mannheim · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock · 1-1 (D)
SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Havelse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Saarbrücken | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Waldhof Mannheim | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alemannia Aachen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Fortuna Köln | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Verl | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 13 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 14 | Stuttgart II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | SV Wehen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Würzburger Kickers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | SV Meppen | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 20 | Havelse | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is SV Wehen win, at 45.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.