Svay Rieng Stadium · Referee K. Takasaki · Analysis updated 18:50 UTC
Svay Rieng vs Bangkok United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Svay Rieng and 1.40 for Bangkok United, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Svay Rieng the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Svay Rieng win
64.9% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Svay Rieng home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bangkok United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Svay Rieng to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 17% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Svay Rieng and 1.40 for Bangkok United, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–16.3%
- 2–06.0%
- 2–25.9%
Recent form
Svay Rieng
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Boeung Ket · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Phnom Penh Crown · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Kuwait · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-05-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Boeung Ket · 2-3 (L)
Bangkok United
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lamphun Warrior · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BG Pathum United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ratchaburi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Sisaket United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayong FC · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
ASEAN Club Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manila Digger | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| 2 | Ezra | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Shan United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Kuching FA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Ho Chi Minh | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Ratchaburi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Buriram United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Pusamania Borneo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Kasuka | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Svay Rieng win, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.