Svay Rieng Stadium · Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
Svay Rieng vs Boeung Ket Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.19 expected goals for Svay Rieng and 1.03 for Boeung Ket, a combined total of 4.22. That distribution gives Svay Rieng the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Svay Rieng win
79.3% probability
Expected goals
3.19 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Svay Rieng home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Boeung Ket away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Svay Rieng to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 12% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.19 goals for Svay Rieng and 1.03 for Boeung Ket, a combined 4.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
21%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.2%
- 3–08.0%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–07.5%
- 4–16.5%
Recent form
Svay Rieng
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Boeung Ket · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Phnom Penh Crown · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Kuwait · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-05-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Boeung Ket · 2-3 (L)
Boeung Ket
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangkor Senchey · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kompong Dewa · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
C-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | NagaWorld | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Svay Rieng | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
| 4 | Angkor Tiger | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 |
| 5 | Phnom Penh Crown | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Dangkor Senchey | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | Kompong Dewa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Life Sihanoukville | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 10 | Boeung Ket | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 11 | National Defense | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Svay Rieng win, at 79.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.