· Analysis updated 16:09 UTC
Svitavy vs Kolín Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Svitavy and 2.15 for Kolín, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives Kolín the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kolín win
55.4% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Svitavy home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kolín away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kolín to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 24% / 21% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Svitavy and 2.15 for Kolín, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–18.8%
- 0–26.9%
- 1–36.7%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Svitavy
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vysoké Mýto · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Přepeře · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Trutnov · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ústí nad Orlicí · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vykan · 0-0 (D)
Kolín
- 2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Turnov · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Vykan · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Police n/Metují · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Svitavy · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmonosy · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vysoké Mýto | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 29 |
| 2 | Přepeře | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 27 |
| 3 | Kosmonosy | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 4 | Trutnov | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Turnov | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 6 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 8 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Kolín | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Dvůr Králové | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Hlinsko | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 13 | Vykan | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Svitavy | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
| 15 | Letohrad | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -25 | 2 |
| 16 | Chrudim II | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -31 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kolín win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.