Svitavy vs Trutnov Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Svitavy and 1.85 for Trutnov, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Trutnov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Trutnov win

57.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Svitavy home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trutnov away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trutnov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 20% / 23% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Svitavy and 1.85 for Trutnov, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Svitavy win20%

Draw23%

Trutnov win57%

Double chance 1X

43%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

0–110.7%
1–110.7%
0–29.9%
1–29.9%
0–36.1%

Recent form

Svitavy

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vysoké Mýto · 3-5 (L)
2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Přepeře · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Trutnov · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Ústí nad Orlicí · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vykan · 0-0 (D)

Trutnov

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vykan · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Svitavy · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Dvůr Králové · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Hlinsko · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavia Hradec Králové · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

4. liga - Divizie C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vysoké Mýto	11	9	2	0	18	29
2	Přepeře	11	9	0	2	23	27
3	Kosmonosy	11	8	1	2	17	25
4	Trutnov	11	7	1	3	7	22
5	Turnov	11	6	2	3	10	20
6	Ústí nad Orlicí	11	6	2	3	10	20
7	Chlumec nad Cidlinou	11	6	2	3	6	20
8	Spartak Police n/Metují	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Kolín	11	4	3	4	2	15
10	Dvůr Králové	11	4	2	5	-3	14
11	Hlinsko	11	4	1	6	-4	13
12	Slavia Hradec Králové	11	3	2	6	-8	11
13	Vykan	11	3	1	7	-4	10
14	Svitavy	11	1	2	8	-17	5
15	Letohrad	11	0	2	9	-25	2
16	Chrudim II	11	0	2	9	-31	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Trutnov win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.