· Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Svoboda vs Zidgrad Idrija Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Svoboda and 1.97 for Zidgrad Idrija, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Zidgrad Idrija the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zidgrad Idrija win
64.4% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Svoboda home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zidgrad Idrija away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zidgrad Idrija to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 15% / 21% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Svoboda and 1.97 for Zidgrad Idrija, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.1%
- 0–212.0%
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–37.9%
Recent form
Svoboda
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Škofja Loka · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Tolmin · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Šencur · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dob · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Vipava · 3-5 (L)
Zidgrad Idrija
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Šencur · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dob · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vipava · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Adria · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Litija · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · Svoboda 0-1 Zidgrad Idrija (3. SNL - West)
- 2025-11-15T13:00:00.000Z · Svoboda 4-3 Zidgrad Idrija (3. SNL - West)
- 2025-08-17T15:00:00.000Z · Svoboda 0-3 Zidgrad Idrija (3. SNL - West)
3. SNL - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izola | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 30 |
| 2 | Zidgrad Idrija | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 25 |
| 3 | Dob | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 23 |
| 4 | Litija | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Šencur | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 16 |
| 6 | Tolmin | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Rudar Trbovlje | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -16 | 13 |
| 8 | Škofja Loka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | Adria | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Žiri | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | IB 1975 Ljubljana | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Šobec Lesce | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
| 13 | Vipava | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -27 | 7 |
| 14 | Svoboda | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zidgrad Idrija win, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.