· Analysis updated 14:29 UTC
SW Essen vs BW Dingden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for SW Essen and 1.78 for BW Dingden, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives BW Dingden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
BW Dingden win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
SW Essen home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BW Dingden away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BW Dingden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for SW Essen and 1.78 for BW Dingden, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–27.1%
- 2–17.0%
Recent form
SW Essen
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Monheim · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Solingen-Wald · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KFC Uerdingen 05 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meerbusch · 1-0 (W)
BW Dingden
- 2026-10-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SC St. Tönis · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSVg Velbert · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Büderich · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Schonnebeck · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wuppertaler SV · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Niederrhein table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schonnebeck | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 23 |
| 2 | SSVg Velbert | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Fortuna Düsseldorf II | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 17 |
| 4 | BW Dingden | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | SF Baumberg | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Solingen-Wald | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 7 | SC St. Tönis | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Germania Ratingen | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | KFC Uerdingen 05 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 |
| 11 | Sonsbeck | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 12 | Monheim | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | Wuppertaler SV | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Scherpenberg | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 15 | SW Essen | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 6 |
| 16 | Büderich | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 6 |
| 17 | Holzheimer SG | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 4 |
| 18 | Meerbusch | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BW Dingden win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.