SW Essen vs Meerbusch Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for SW Essen and 1.83 for Meerbusch, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Meerbusch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

SW Essen home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Meerbusch away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

SW Essen win36%

Draw22%

Meerbusch win42%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals68%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–19.1%
1–28.3%
2–17.8%
2–27.1%
0–15.4%

Recent form

SW Essen

2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Monheim · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Viktoria Jüchen-Garz. · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Solingen-Wald · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KFC Uerdingen 05 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meerbusch · 1-0 (W)

Meerbusch

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KFC Uerdingen 05 · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SSVg Velbert · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sonsbeck · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SW Essen · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Scherpenberg · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · SW Essen 1-0 Meerbusch (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2026-06-07T13:00:00.000Z · SW Essen 3-4 Meerbusch (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2025-12-12T19:00:00.000Z · SW Essen 0-1 Meerbusch (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2025-04-17T17:00:00.000Z · SW Essen 3-2 Meerbusch (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2024-10-27T14:00:00.000Z · SW Essen 3-1 Meerbusch (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2024-03-03T14:00:00.000Z · SW Essen 2-0 Meerbusch (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2023-09-10T13:00:00.000Z · SW Essen 3-1 Meerbusch (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2023-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · SW Essen 3-3 Meerbusch (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2022-10-22T14:00:00.000Z · SW Essen 3-2 Meerbusch (Oberliga - Niederrhein)
2022-05-22T13:00:00.000Z · SW Essen 5-1 Meerbusch (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Schonnebeck	10	8	2	0	24	26
2	SSVg Velbert	10	8	0	2	11	24
3	Fortuna Düsseldorf II	10	6	2	2	12	20
4	SC St. Tönis	10	5	2	3	5	17
5	Sonsbeck	10	4	4	2	4	16
6	SF Baumberg	10	4	4	2	2	16
7	BW Dingden	10	5	1	4	0	16
8	Monheim	10	4	3	3	6	15
9	Solingen-Wald	10	5	0	5	-4	15
10	KFC Uerdingen 05	10	4	2	4	9	14
11	Germania Ratingen	10	3	5	2	1	14
12	Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.	10	4	2	4	-1	14
13	Wuppertaler SV	10	4	1	5	5	13
14	Scherpenberg	10	2	2	6	-13	8
15	Büderich	10	1	4	5	-14	7
16	SW Essen	10	1	3	6	-11	6
17	Meerbusch	10	1	2	7	-14	5
18	Holzheimer SG	10	1	1	8	-22	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.