· Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Swansea City U21 vs Birmingham City U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.51 expected goals for Swansea City U21 and 1.53 for Birmingham City U21, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Swansea City U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Swansea City U21 win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
2.51 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Swansea City U21 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Birmingham City U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Swansea City U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.51 goals for Swansea City U21 and 1.53 for Birmingham City U21, a combined 4.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.1%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–05.6%
Recent form
Swansea City U21
- 2026-09-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Queens Park Rangers U21 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield Town U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield Town U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City U21 · 2-0 (W)
Birmingham City U21
- 2026-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich Town U21 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby County U21 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield Town U21 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal U21 · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Swansea City U21 win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.