Swansea City U21 vs Queens Park Rangers U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for Swansea City U21 and 1.52 for Queens Park Rangers U21, a combined total of 4.06. That distribution gives Swansea City U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Swansea City U21 win

59.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.54 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Swansea City U21 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Queens Park Rangers U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Swansea City U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 18% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.54 goals for Swansea City U21 and 1.52 for Queens Park Rangers U21, a combined 4.06 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Swansea City U21 win60%

Draw18%

Queens Park Rangers U21 win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

40%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

2–18.5%
3–17.2%
1–16.7%
2–26.4%
2–05.6%

Recent form

Swansea City U21

2026-09-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Queens Park Rangers U21 · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town U21 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield Town U21 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huddersfield Town U21 · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City U21 · 2-0 (W)

Queens Park Rangers U21

2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff City U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton U21 · 1-5 (L)
2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Coventry City U21 · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea City U21 · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolton Wanderers Res. · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Professional Development League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bolton Wanderers Res.	6	6	0	0	16	18
2	Fleetwood Town U21	7	5	0	2	-1	15
3	Bristol City U21	5	2	3	0	5	9
4	Swansea City U21	6	3	0	3	2	9
5	Charlton Athletic U21	6	2	3	1	2	9
6	Wigan Athletic U21	7	2	3	2	-3	9
7	Cardiff City U21	5	2	2	1	8	8
8	Coventry City U21	5	2	1	2	0	7
9	Sheffield United U21	5	2	1	2	0	7
10	Barnsley U21	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	Peterborough United U21	5	2	1	2	-4	7
12	Huddersfield Town U21	4	2	0	2	1	6
13	Sheffield Wednesday U21	6	1	3	2	0	6
14	Colchester United U21	6	2	0	4	-6	6
15	Queens Park Rangers U21	6	1	1	4	-5	4
16	Hull City U21	4	0	1	3	-6	1
17	Millwall U21	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Swansea City U21 win, at 59.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.