Swansea.com Stadium · Referee Andrew Kitchen, England · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Swansea vs Norwich Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Swansea and 1.13 for Norwich, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Swansea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Swansea home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Norwich away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–110.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 52.3% vs market 42.4%, edge +9.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 42.4% | 52.3% | 1.91 | +9.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 65.6% | 66.2% | 1.51 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 2.75 | 33.5% | 33.8% | 2.96 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.9% | 28.0% | 3.57 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.53 | 61.7% | 61.8% | 1.62 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.38 | 38.7% | 38.2% | 2.62 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.7% | 72.0% | 1.39 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.62 | 57.6% | 47.7% | 2.10 | -9.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Swansea
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 0-0 (D)
Norwich
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Bolton · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-17T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Middlesbrough · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Swansea 1-1 Norwich (Championship)
- 2025-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · Swansea 2-1 Norwich (Championship)
- 2025-01-25T12:30:00.000Z · Swansea 1-5 Norwich (Championship)
- 2024-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · Swansea 1-0 Norwich (Championship)
- 2024-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Swansea 2-2 Norwich (Championship)
- 2023-10-04T18:45:00.000Z · Swansea 2-1 Norwich (Championship)
- 2023-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Swansea 3-0 Norwich (Championship)
- 2022-12-10T15:00:00.000Z · Swansea 0-1 Norwich (Championship)
- 2021-02-05T20:15:00.000Z · Swansea 2-0 Norwich (Championship)
- 2020-11-07T15:00:00.000Z · Swansea 0-1 Norwich (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolves | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.