Swansea vs Wrexham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Swansea and 1.03 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Swansea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Swansea home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wrexham away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Swansea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 30% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Swansea and 1.03 for Wrexham, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Swansea win36%

Draw30%

Wrexham win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–113.5%
1–013.2%
0–112.6%
0–012.2%
2–17.3%

Recent form

Swansea

2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Norwich · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 1-3 (L)

Wrexham

2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs West Brom · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · Swansea 0-0 Wrexham (Championship)
2026-03-13T20:00:00.000Z · Swansea 0-2 Wrexham (Championship)
2025-12-19T20:00:00.000Z · Swansea 2-1 Wrexham (Championship)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	11	7	2	2	8	23
2	West Ham	11	6	4	1	18	22
3	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	6	22
4	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	9	20
5	West Brom	11	6	2	3	3	20
6	Stoke City	11	6	1	4	2	19
7	Southampton	11	6	3	2	11	17
8	Wolves	10	5	2	3	3	17
9	QPR	11	4	5	2	3	17
10	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	4	3	4	1	15
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	0	15
13	Portsmouth	10	4	2	4	0	14
14	Wrexham	11	3	5	3	-1	14
15	Bolton	11	4	2	5	-3	14
16	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	-3	14
17	Charlton	11	3	5	3	-5	14
18	Lincoln	11	3	3	5	-10	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	1	11
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	-9	11
21	Norwich	11	3	0	8	-4	9
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	-5	8
23	Derby	11	1	3	7	-11	6
24	Preston	11	1	1	9	-15	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.