Falcon Alkoholfri Arena · Referee K. Umudlu · Analysis updated 06:31 UTC
Sweden U21 vs North Macedonia U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Sweden U21 and 1.90 for North Macedonia U21, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Sweden U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.7% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sweden U21 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
North Macedonia U21 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sweden U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 21% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Sweden U21 and 1.90 for North Macedonia U21, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.1%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–14.9%
Recent form
Sweden U21
- 2026-06-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Finland U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Italy U21 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-03-27T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Montenegro U21 · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Armenia U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-11-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs North Macedonia U21 · 4-1 (W)
North Macedonia U21
- 2026-08-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs United States U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulgaria U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Armenia U21 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.