Stade Alphonse Theis · Analysis updated 08:35 UTC
Swift Hesperange vs AS Jeunesse Esch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.91 expected goals for Swift Hesperange and 2.69 for AS Jeunesse Esch, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives AS Jeunesse Esch the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AS Jeunesse Esch win
74.9% probability
Expected goals
0.91 – 2.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Swift Hesperange home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Jeunesse Esch away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Jeunesse Esch to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 10% / 15% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.91 goals for Swift Hesperange and 2.69 for AS Jeunesse Esch, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–38.9%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Swift Hesperange
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Hostert · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiltz · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-14T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Bettembourg · 0-2 (L)
AS Jeunesse Esch
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bastendorf · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiltz · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 5-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Atert Bissen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -36 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AS Jeunesse Esch win, at 74.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.