Stade Alphonse Theis · Analysis updated 07:20 UTC
Swift Hesperange vs Résidence Walferdange Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Swift Hesperange and 3.43 for Résidence Walferdange, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives Résidence Walferdange the largest share of the 1X2 market at 86%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 86% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Résidence Walferdange win
86.4% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 3.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Swift Hesperange home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Résidence Walferdange away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Résidence Walferdange to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 86%, against 5% / 9% / 86% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Swift Hesperange and 3.43 for Résidence Walferdange, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
14%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–310.3%
- 0–29.0%
- 0–48.8%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Swift Hesperange
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Hostert · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiltz · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-14T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Bettembourg · 0-2 (L)
Résidence Walferdange
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Atert Bissen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs UN Kaerjeng 97 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Progres Niederkorn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Hostert · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Atert Bissen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -36 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Résidence Walferdange win, at 86.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 86% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.