Stade Alphonse Theis · Analysis updated 12:34 UTC
Swift Hesperange vs US Hostert Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Swift Hesperange and 2.58 for US Hostert, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives US Hostert the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
US Hostert win
75.2% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 2.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Swift Hesperange home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
US Hostert away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.1%
- 0–39.6%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–37.8%
Recent form
Swift Hesperange
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs US Hostert · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wiltz · 2-7 (L)
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Rumelange · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-14T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Bettembourg · 0-2 (L)
US Hostert
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Alisontia Steinsel · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Jeunesse Esch · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs F91 Dudelange · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Differdange 03 · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · Swift Hesperange 0-2 US Hostert (National Division)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · Swift Hesperange 0-1 US Hostert (National Division)
- 2025-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Swift Hesperange 1-1 US Hostert (National Division)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Swift Hesperange 0-3 US Hostert (Cup)
- 2025-02-09T14:00:00.000Z · Swift Hesperange 3-0 US Hostert (National Division)
- 2024-08-11T14:00:00.000Z · Swift Hesperange 5-1 US Hostert (National Division)
- 2024-02-10T15:00:00.000Z · Swift Hesperange 4-1 US Hostert (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-02-12T15:00:00.000Z · Swift Hesperange 5-1 US Hostert (National Division)
- 2022-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · Swift Hesperange 4-0 US Hostert (National Division)
- 2022-05-15T14:00:00.000Z · Swift Hesperange 3-1 US Hostert (National Division)
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 27 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Atert Bissen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 19 |
| 7 | Progres Niederkorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | US Rumelange | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 7 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | -36 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is US Hostert win, at 75.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.