· Analysis updated 12:09 UTC
Swindon Supermarine vs Weymouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Swindon Supermarine and 1.64 for Weymouth, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Weymouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Swindon Supermarine home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Weymouth away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Weymouth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 24% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Swindon Supermarine and 1.64 for Weymouth, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.1%
- 0–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Swindon Supermarine
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Weymouth · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Winslow United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Winslow United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slimbridge · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 0-4 (L)
Weymouth
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chippenham Town · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Supermarine · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartpury University · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bath City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Melksham Town · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Swindon Supermarine 1-3 Weymouth (FA Cup)
- 2023-07-22T14:00:00.000Z · Swindon Supermarine 1-2 Weymouth (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.