County Ground · Referee D. Bourne · Analysis updated 14:43 UTC
Swindon Town vs Newport County Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Swindon Town and 0.97 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Swindon Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Swindon Town win
50.3% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Swindon Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newport County away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Swindon Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Swindon Town and 0.97 for Newport County, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.3%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 51.4% vs market 45.5%, edge +5.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 45.5% | 51.4% | 1.95 | +5.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1.99 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.1% | 74.3% | 1.35 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 75.9% | 76.0% | 1.32 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 25.7% | 25.7% | 3.89 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.60 | 24.3% | 24.0% | 4.17 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.0% | 49.7% | 2.01 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 54.5% | 48.6% | 2.06 | -5.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Swindon Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochdale · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Accrington ST · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newport County · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace U21 · 1-2 (L)
Newport County
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Grimsby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Swindon Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Accrington ST · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Swindon Town win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.