Swindon Town vs Walsall Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.28 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Walsall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Swindon Town home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Walsall away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Swindon Town win33%

Draw28%

Walsall win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–113.0%
0–111.6%
1–010.2%
0–09.1%
1–28.3%

Recent form

Swindon Town

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rochdale · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Accrington ST · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Newport County · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salford City · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace U21 · 1-2 (L)

Walsall

2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham U21 · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetwood Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tranmere · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Stevenage · 1-6 (L)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Port Vale · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Swindon Town 2-1 Walsall (League Two)
2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · Swindon Town 1-2 Walsall (League Two)
2025-03-01T15:00:00.000Z · Swindon Town 1-0 Walsall (League Two)
2024-08-17T14:00:00.000Z · Swindon Town 0-4 Walsall (League Two)
2024-04-16T18:45:00.000Z · Swindon Town 1-2 Walsall (League Two)
2023-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · Swindon Town 2-0 Walsall (League Two)
2023-03-14T19:45:00.000Z · Swindon Town 0-0 Walsall (League Two)
2022-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · Swindon Town 1-2 Walsall (League Two)
2022-08-09T18:45:00.000Z · Swindon Town 0-2 Walsall (League Cup)
2022-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · Swindon Town 3-0 Walsall (League Two)

League Two table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Salford City	10	6	1	3	5	19
2	Barnet	8	5	3	0	9	18
3	Crewe	10	4	6	0	5	18
4	Gillingham	10	4	4	2	5	16
5	York	9	4	3	2	6	15
6	Walsall	9	3	6	0	6	15
7	Chesterfield	10	4	3	3	3	15
8	Cheltenham	10	4	3	3	0	15
9	Bristol Rovers	10	5	0	5	-2	15
10	Rochdale	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Grimsby	10	3	4	3	2	13
12	Newport County	10	3	4	3	1	13
13	Tranmere	10	2	6	2	0	12
14	Exeter City	10	3	3	4	0	12
15	Accrington ST	10	2	5	3	-1	11
16	Fleetwood Town	10	2	5	3	-1	11
17	Swindon Town	10	3	2	5	-5	11
18	Shrewsbury	10	3	2	5	-6	11
19	Colchester	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Rotherham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
21	Oldham	9	2	2	5	-4	8
22	Port Vale	8	2	2	4	-5	8
23	Northampton	8	1	4	3	-3	7
24	Crawley Town	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.