Rockdale Ilinden Sports Centre · Analysis updated 10:03 UTC
Sydney FC U23 vs St George City FA Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sydney FC U23 and 1.05 for St George City FA, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Sydney FC U23 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sydney FC U23 home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
St George City FA away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–111.1%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Sydney FC U23
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Sydney Olympic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-21T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Rockdale City Suns · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs St George City FA · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Sutherland Sharks · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Blacktown City · 2-4 (L)
St George City FA
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · A vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutherland Sharks · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sydney FC U23 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T09:15:00.000Z · H vs Rockdale City Suns · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Marconi Stallions · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · Sydney FC U23 0-2 St George City FA (New South Wales NPL)
- 2026-05-02T09:15:00.000Z · Sydney FC U23 5-0 St George City FA (New South Wales NPL)
- 2025-06-06T09:30:00.000Z · Sydney FC U23 3-1 St George City FA (New South Wales NPL)
- 2025-02-22T08:15:00.000Z · Sydney FC U23 0-5 St George City FA (New South Wales NPL)
- 2024-07-06T09:15:00.000Z · Sydney FC U23 2-1 St George City FA (New South Wales NPL)
- 2024-05-01T09:15:00.000Z · Sydney FC U23 1-3 St George City FA (New South Wales NPL)
- 2023-07-15T09:00:00.000Z · Sydney FC U23 4-3 St George City FA (New South Wales NPL)
- 2023-04-02T05:00:00.000Z · Sydney FC U23 2-2 St George City FA (New South Wales NPL)
New South Wales NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers | 30 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 68 |
| 2 | Sydney United | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 64 |
| 3 | Marconi Stallions | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 62 |
| 4 | Sutherland Sharks | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 46 |
| 5 | Manly United | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 44 |
| 6 | Rockdale City Suns | 30 | 13 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 43 |
| 7 | NWS Spirit | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | SD Raiders | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | -5 | 41 |
| 9 | Sydney FC U23 | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | -5 | 41 |
| 10 | Western Sydney Wanderers U23 | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 38 |
| 11 | Wollongong Wolves | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | -8 | 38 |
| 12 | St George City FA | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | -16 | 37 |
| 13 | Blacktown City | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 |
| 14 | UNSW | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 32 |
| 15 | St. George Saints | 30 | 8 | 3 | 19 | -27 | 27 |
| 16 | Sydney Olympic | 30 | 6 | 5 | 19 | -30 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.