Sydney United Sports Centre · Analysis updated 06:55 UTC
Sydney United vs Canberra FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Sydney United and 0.70 for Canberra FC, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Sydney United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sydney United win
76.6% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Sydney United home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sydney United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 15% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Sydney United and 0.70 for Canberra FC, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 46%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.7%
- 3–010.6%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.83 (model 53.8% vs market 50.0%, edge +3.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.83 | 50.0% | 53.8% | 1.86 | +3.8 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.62 | 57.6% | 60.4% | 1.66 | +2.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.03 | 89.7% | 91.6% | 1.09 | +1.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.11 | 83.2% | 84.9% | 1.18 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Away | 12.00 | 7.5% | 8.3% | 12.05 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.50 | 37.5% | 38.1% | 2.62 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.18 | 76.7% | 76.6% | 1.31 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.50 | 62.5% | 61.9% | 1.62 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.75 | 15.7% | 15.0% | 6.67 | -0.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.20 | 42.4% | 39.6% | 2.53 | -2.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.83 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 2.16 | -3.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.40 | 27.2% | 23.3% | 4.29 | -3.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Sydney United
- 2026-10-23T08:30:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Canberra FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T05:00:00.000Z · A vs APIA Leichhardt Tigers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Manly United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs St. George Saints · 6-0 (W)
Canberra FC
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Belconnen United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaro Panthers · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T07:30:00.000Z · H vs O'Connor Knights · 5-4 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-18T04:00:00.000Z · Sydney United 1-1 Canberra FC (Australian Championship)
Australian Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Melbourne | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 1 | South Hobart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Sutherland Sharks | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Wests APIA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Bayswater City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Sydney United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Avondale | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Marconi Stallions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 3 | Wollongong Wolves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 4 | Canberra FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Adelaide City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Sydney Olympic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 | Preston Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sydney United win, at 76.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.