· Analysis updated 04:56 UTC
Syunik vs Ararat II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Syunik and 1.14 for Ararat II, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Syunik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Syunik win
59.1% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ararat II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Syunik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Syunik and 1.14 for Ararat II, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 60%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Syunik
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyunik Yerevan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat · 1-1 (D)
Ararat II
- 2026-08-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Shirak II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Araks Ararat · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Andranik · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Syunik · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Andranik · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia Yerevan | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | Andranik | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 22 |
| 3 | BKMA II | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 19 |
| 4 | Bentonit Ijevan | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 |
| 5 | Araks Ararat | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Lernayin Artsakh | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Mika | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 8 | Pyunik II | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Shirak II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Ararat II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Sardarapat 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | Banants II | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 13 | Noah II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -15 | 6 |
| 14 | Ararat-Armenia II | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Syunik win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.