Szekszárdi Városi Stadion · Analysis updated 19:36 UTC
Szekszárd vs Paksi SE II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Szekszárd and 1.90 for Paksi SE II, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Paksi SE II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Szekszárd home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Paksi SE II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–35.3%
Recent form
Szekszárd
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Paksi SE II · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Budaörs · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sárbogárd · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Siofok · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Budafoki LC · 0-4 (L)
Paksi SE II
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 8-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Siofok · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Budafoki LC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs PTE-PEAC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs MTK Budapest II · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · Szekszárd 1-8 Paksi SE II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · Szekszárd 3-2 Paksi SE II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2026-02-18T13:00:00.000Z · Szekszárd 3-2 Paksi SE II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-11-09T10:00:00.000Z · Szekszárd 1-4 Paksi SE II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2025-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · Szekszárd 1-0 Paksi SE II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2024-09-22T09:00:00.000Z · Szekszárd 1-2 Paksi SE II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2024-07-17T12:00:00.000Z · Szekszárd 0-3 Paksi SE II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-05-19T09:00:00.000Z · Szekszárd 2-2 Paksi SE II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2023-11-22T12:00:00.000Z · Szekszárd 1-0 Paksi SE II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2023-03-19T10:00:00.000Z · Szekszárd 1-1 Paksi SE II (NB III - Northwest)
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 13 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 37 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Ferencváros II | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Iváncsa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Majosi | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 6 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Budafoki LC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Siofok | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 17 |
| 9 | Érdi VSE | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | PTE-PEAC | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | MTK Budapest II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 15 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -19 | 12 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -28 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -41 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.