Szentlőrinc SE vs Karcag SE Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Szentlőrinc SE and 1.34 for Karcag SE, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Szentlőrinc SE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.34

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Szentlőrinc SE home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karcag SE away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Szentlőrinc SE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Szentlőrinc SE and 1.34 for Karcag SE, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Szentlőrinc SE win38%

Draw26%

Karcag SE win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–09.1%
0–18.8%
2–18.4%
1–28.2%

Recent form

Szentlőrinc SE

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs BVSC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyulai Termál · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiszakecske FC · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Ajka · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-23T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Soroksar · 2-3 (L)

Karcag SE

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kozarmisleny FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyori ETO FC · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyirmot SE · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Fehérvár FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs BVSC · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · Szentlőrinc SE 0-0 Karcag SE (NB II)
2026-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Szentlőrinc SE 1-0 Karcag SE (NB II)
2025-11-09T12:00:00.000Z · Szentlőrinc SE 1-1 Karcag SE (NB II)

NB II table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Soroksar	10	7	2	1	14	23
2	Tiszakecske FC	10	6	4	0	9	22
3	Kecskeméti TE	10	6	2	2	6	20
4	Gyirmot SE	10	6	1	3	1	19
5	Kazincbarcikai	10	4	5	1	5	17
6	Mezokovesd-zsory	10	5	2	3	5	17
7	Ajka	10	4	3	3	1	15
8	Fehérvár FC	10	4	0	6	2	12
9	Diosgyori VTK	10	3	3	4	-5	12
10	Karcag SE	10	2	5	3	-2	11
11	Szentlőrinc SE	10	3	2	5	-5	11
12	BVSC	9	3	1	5	-1	10
13	Szeged 2011	9	2	4	3	-1	10
14	Nagykanizsai ULE	10	3	0	7	-7	9
15	Kozarmisleny FC	10	2	1	7	-9	7
16	Csakvar	10	1	1	8	-13	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.