Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium · Analysis updated 08:39 UTC
Tabora United vs Geita Gold Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Tabora United and 0.38 for Geita Gold, a combined total of 1.73. That distribution gives Tabora United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 23% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 24%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Tabora United win
61.8% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tabora United home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Geita Gold away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tabora United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 28% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Tabora United and 0.38 for Geita Gold, a combined 1.73 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–024.1%
- 0–017.8%
- 2–016.2%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Tabora United
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Dodoma Jiji · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-24T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Coastal Union · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Azam · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T17:30:00.000Z · A vs JKT Tanzania · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mbeya City · 0-0 (D)
Geita Gold
- 2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dodoma Jiji · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Pamba Jiji · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Africans · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Simba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Azam · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligi kuu Bara table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 3 | Azam | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Namungo | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Mashujaa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 12 | Tabora United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Geita Gold | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Pamba Jiji | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Fountain Gate | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tabora United win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 23% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.