Tibblevallen · Analysis updated 01:36 UTC
Täby vs Angby Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Täby and 1.17 for Angby, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Täby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Täby win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Täby home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Angby away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Täby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Täby and 1.17 for Angby, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.2%
- 0–16.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 50.1% | 50.7% | 1.97 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 49.2% | 49.3% | 2.03 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.0% | 24.1% | 4.15 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 73.4% | 73.4% | 1.36 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 26.8% | 26.6% | 3.76 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 76.5% | 75.9% | 1.32 | -0.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Täby
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Viggbyholms IK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skiljebo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Angby · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Falu BS · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Helges · 1-1 (D)
Angby
- 2026-08-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Korsnäs · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunnersta · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kungsängen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gute · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lidingö · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · Täby 2-1 Angby (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
- 2026-06-06T11:00:00.000Z · Täby 0-1 Angby (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
Division 2 - Norra Svealand table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skiljebo | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 59 |
| 2 | Enskede | 26 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 55 |
| 3 | Sunnersta | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 43 | 54 |
| 4 | Angby | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 51 |
| 5 | Falu BS | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 44 |
| 6 | Täby | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 42 |
| 7 | Franke | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Gute | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 33 |
| 9 | Bollstanäs | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 31 |
| 10 | Kungsängen | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | -9 | 26 |
| 11 | Viggbyholms IK | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | -23 | 25 |
| 12 | Lidingö | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -27 | 23 |
| 13 | Korsnäs | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -36 | 17 |
| 14 | Helges | 26 | 2 | 4 | 20 | -50 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Täby win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.