Tibblevallen · Analysis updated 09:11 UTC
Täby vs Viggbyholms IK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Täby and 1.68 for Viggbyholms IK, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Täby the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Täby win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Täby home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Viggbyholms IK away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Täby to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 19% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Täby and 1.68 for Viggbyholms IK, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–16.7%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–25.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.33 (model 74.0% vs market 68.6%, edge +5.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 1.33 | 68.6% | 74.0% | 1.35 | +5.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 79.8% | 80.7% | 1.24 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 25.9% | 26.5% | 3.77 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.05 | 45.5% | 45.8% | 2.18 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.62 | 54.5% | 54.2% | 1.85 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.50 | 19.6% | 19.3% | 5.18 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.7% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.90 | 31.4% | 26.0% | 3.85 | -5.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Täby
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Kungsängen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lidingö · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Viggbyholms IK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Skiljebo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Angby · 2-1 (W)
Viggbyholms IK
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Korsnäs · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Helges · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gute · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Falu BS · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Enskede · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · Täby 3-0 Viggbyholms IK (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · Täby 4-2 Viggbyholms IK (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
- 2025-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · Täby 4-0 Viggbyholms IK (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
- 2025-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · Täby 2-4 Viggbyholms IK (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
Division 2 - Norra Svealand table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skiljebo | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 59 |
| 2 | Enskede | 26 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 55 |
| 3 | Sunnersta | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 43 | 54 |
| 4 | Angby | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 51 |
| 5 | Falu BS | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 44 |
| 6 | Täby | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 42 |
| 7 | Franke | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Gute | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 33 |
| 9 | Bollstanäs | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 31 |
| 10 | Kungsängen | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | -9 | 26 |
| 11 | Viggbyholms IK | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | -23 | 25 |
| 12 | Lidingö | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -27 | 23 |
| 13 | Korsnäs | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -36 | 17 |
| 14 | Helges | 26 | 2 | 4 | 20 | -50 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Täby win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.