Starfire Sports · Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Tacoma Defiance vs Portland Timbers II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Tacoma Defiance and 1.17 for Portland Timbers II, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Tacoma Defiance the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tacoma Defiance home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Portland Timbers II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.9%
- 0–19.6%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 49.3% vs market 36.5%, edge +12.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 36.5% | 49.3% | 2.03 | +12.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.9% | 73.1% | 1.37 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.20 | 40.3% | 40.4% | 2.48 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 67.2% | 67.3% | 1.49 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 26.9% | 26.9% | 3.72 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.70 | 32.8% | 32.7% | 3.06 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 59.9% | 59.6% | 1.68 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.5% | 50.7% | 1.97 | -12.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Tacoma Defiance
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Portland Timbers II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Ventura County · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T02:30:00.000Z · A vs The Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Monarchs · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-25T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting KC II · 4-0 (W)
Portland Timbers II
- 2026-10-17T02:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Tacoma Defiance · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T20:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Austin II · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · Tacoma Defiance 1-1 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2026-07-06T02:00:00.000Z · Tacoma Defiance 0-2 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2026-05-31T20:00:00.000Z · Tacoma Defiance 0-1 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-08-25T03:00:00.000Z · Tacoma Defiance 1-2 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-07-28T02:00:00.000Z · Tacoma Defiance 1-2 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2025-05-19T02:30:00.000Z · Tacoma Defiance 1-2 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-09-09T02:00:00.000Z · Tacoma Defiance 5-2 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-07-01T03:00:00.000Z · Tacoma Defiance 1-0 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2024-05-11T02:30:00.000Z · Tacoma Defiance 1-4 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
- 2023-09-05T03:00:00.000Z · Tacoma Defiance 4-0 Portland Timbers II (MLS Next Pro)
MLS Next Pro table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.