i2i Stadium · Analysis updated 20:20 UTC
Tadcaster Albion vs Chester Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Tadcaster Albion and 1.33 for Chester, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Tadcaster Albion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tadcaster Albion home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chester away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tadcaster Albion to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Tadcaster Albion and 1.33 for Chester, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Tadcaster Albion
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lancaster City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lancaster City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thornaby · 2-3 (L)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Macclesfield · 0-3 (L)
Chester
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bedford Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spennymoor Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Worksop Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lower Breck · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Buxton · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.