i2i Stadium · Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
Tadcaster Albion vs Heaton Stannington Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Tadcaster Albion and 1.30 for Heaton Stannington, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Tadcaster Albion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.1% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tadcaster Albion home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tadcaster Albion to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Tadcaster Albion and 1.30 for Heaton Stannington, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.4%
- 1–27.8%
Recent form
Tadcaster Albion
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lancaster City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lancaster City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thornaby · 2-3 (L)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Macclesfield · 0-3 (L)
Heaton Stannington
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trafford · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Knaresborough Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wythenshawe Amateurs · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Basford United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gateshead · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.