· Analysis updated 18:15 UTC
Tadcaster Albion vs Lancaster City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Tadcaster Albion and 1.41 for Lancaster City, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Tadcaster Albion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tadcaster Albion home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lancaster City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tadcaster Albion to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 24% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Tadcaster Albion and 1.41 for Lancaster City, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Tadcaster Albion
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lancaster City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lancaster City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thornaby · 2-3 (L)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Macclesfield · 0-3 (L)
Lancaster City
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Warrington Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Avro · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilkeston Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Whitby Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cleethorpes Town · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.