Barlow's Park · Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Tadley Calleva vs Millbrook FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Tadley Calleva and 1.22 for Millbrook FC, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Tadley Calleva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Tadley Calleva win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Tadley Calleva home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tadley Calleva to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Tadley Calleva and 1.22 for Millbrook FC, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
Tadley Calleva
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bishop's Cleeve · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Laverstock & Ford · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Ashford Town (Middlesex) · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bracknell Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Weymouth · 4-2 (W)
Millbrook FC
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tadley Calleva · 1-4 (L)
- 2024-08-27T18:45:00.000Z · H vs AFC Stoneham · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-08-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Stoneham · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tadley Calleva · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Tadley Calleva win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.