TAFIC vs BDF XI Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for TAFIC and 0.85 for BDF XI, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives TAFIC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

71.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 0.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

TAFIC home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BDF XI away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

TAFIC win40%

Draw32%

BDF XI win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

68%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals57%

Over 2.5 goals30%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–015.7%
0–015.0%
1–113.3%
0–112.7%
2–08.2%

Recent form

TAFIC

2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Extension Gunners · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Matebele · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Centre Chiefs · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Orapa United · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonota · 0-1 (L)

BDF XI

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sua Flamingoes · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Orapa United · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonota · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Prisons XI · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nico United · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · TAFIC 4-0 BDF XI (Premier League)
2025-11-01T14:00:00.000Z · TAFIC 0-1 BDF XI (Premier League)
2025-02-15T14:00:00.000Z · TAFIC 1-0 BDF XI (Premier League)
2024-12-10T14:00:00.000Z · TAFIC 2-1 BDF XI (Premier League)
2024-04-03T14:00:00.000Z · TAFIC 1-1 BDF XI (Premier League)
2023-12-03T14:00:00.000Z · TAFIC 0-1 BDF XI (Premier League)
2020-01-11T17:00:00.000Z · TAFIC 1-5 BDF XI (Premier League)
2019-10-19T13:30:00.000Z · TAFIC 1-3 BDF XI (Premier League)
2018-03-04T14:00:00.000Z · TAFIC 1-3 BDF XI (Premier League)
2017-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · TAFIC 0-0 BDF XI (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Gaborone United	5	5	0	0	8	15
2	Tonota	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Sua Flamingoes	6	3	2	1	2	11
4	Galaxy	5	3	1	1	2	10
5	Centre Chiefs	7	3	1	3	0	10
6	Orapa United	7	2	3	2	1	9
7	Extension Gunners	6	2	3	1	-1	9
8	TAFIC	5	2	2	1	2	8
9	Police XI	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Nico United	6	2	0	4	-2	6
11	Township Rollers	5	1	2	2	0	5
12	Enesia	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Matebele	6	1	1	4	-3	4
14	BDF XI	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Prisons XI	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Morupule Wanderers	5	0	3	2	-4	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.