· Analysis updated 20:19 UTC
Täfteå vs IFK Östersund Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Täfteå and 1.70 for IFK Östersund, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Täfteå the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Täfteå home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
IFK Östersund away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Täfteå to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 23% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Täfteå and 1.70 for IFK Östersund, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.71 | 53.7% | 55.9% | 1.79 | +2.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.18 | 75.6% | 77.4% | 1.29 | +1.8 |
| Match result | Away | 2.38 | 37.5% | 38.7% | 2.58 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.35 | 37.9% | 38.7% | 2.58 | +0.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.79 | 32.6% | 33.2% | 3.01 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.69 | 33.6% | 34.0% | 2.94 | +0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.36 | 66.4% | 66.0% | 1.52 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.35 | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.50 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 62.0% | 61.3% | 1.63 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.43 | 62.4% | 61.3% | 1.63 | -1.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.62 | 24.6% | 22.6% | 4.42 | -2.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.98 | 46.3% | 44.1% | 2.27 | -2.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Täfteå
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Boden · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kubikenborg · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucksta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Östersund · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Skellefteå · 2-1 (W)
IFK Östersund
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Luleå · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Kubikenborg · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lucksta · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Boden · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Täfteå · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Norrland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 1 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Täfteå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 25 |
| 2 | Gottne | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | Boden | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 11 |
| 5 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Storfors | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 6 | Umea FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 4 |
| 7 | Fransta | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.